The browser you are using is not supported by this website. All versions of Internet Explorer are no longer supported, either by us or Microsoft (read more here: https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/microsoft-365/windows/end-of-ie-support).

Please use a modern browser to fully experience our website, such as the newest versions of Edge, Chrome, Firefox or Safari etc.

Murray Scown photo

Murray Scown

Associate Senior Lecturer

Murray Scown photo

Mapping the solution space for local adaptation under global change : An test of concept for the Vietnamese Mekong delta

Author

  • Frances E. Dunn
  • Marjolijn Haasnoot
  • Haomiao Du
  • Star Karabil
  • Philip S.J. Minderhoud
  • Vincent Schippers
  • Murray Scown
  • Annisa Triyanti
  • Trang Vu
  • Hans Middelkoop

Summary, in English

Current and projected environmental changes are complex and unprecedented in the context of modern societies. Effective adaptation strategies must consider constraining and enabling factors from both physical and societal aspects, as well as associated uncertainties at different points in time. Here we present a multidisciplinary method to quantify the solution space for individual adaptation measures—a conceptual space describing the feasibility of effectively implementing an adaptation measure, bounded by physical and societal constraints. Solution spaces can be projected over time under different scenarios and for multiple adaptation measures to identify what measures are available at any point, when the solution space changes (enabling or disabling choices), and what can be done to expand the space. We demonstrate the method for an illustrative case study of the coastal Mekong delta in Vietnam, an area with intense overlapping drivers of relative sea-level rise increasing coastal flooding. We consider three adaptation measures (mangroves, dikes, retreat) over the 21st century. The implementation reveals critical conditions for adaptation strategies, and when they might become infeasible without enabling actions. Our novel systematic approach can be implemented in real-world cases using data from the specific case of interest to assess the feasibility of measures determined by the (bio)physical, socio-economic, governance and legislation context, and provides insight into adaptation limitations and measures to maintain and/or expand the solution space. Such a multi-dimensional assessment is challenging due to the identification of critical conditions for many different dimensions, but is valuable to evaluate adaptation potential and design adaptive pathways plans to deal with uncertain changing conditions.

Department/s

  • LUCSUS (Lund University Centre for Sustainability Studies)

Publishing year

2025-12

Language

English

Publication/Series

Global Environmental Change

Volume

95

Document type

Journal article

Publisher

Elsevier

Topic

  • Environmental Sciences

Keywords

  • Adaptation limits
  • Dynamic adaptive pathways planning
  • Relative sea-level rise

Status

Published

ISBN/ISSN/Other

  • ISSN: 0959-3780